You all my have read the articles I’ve written about why I am bullish on the banking sector and are probably wondering why I insist that stocks like Morgan Stanley or Goldman Sachs will eventually rebound and will do so more quickly than the indeces as a whole. in defense of my argument, I would first like to give a past example that supports it. In 2000, we all can recall the tech crash that began with giants like Enron and Lucent crashing. Those two companies are now dead and have never come back since their fatal collapse. Just as those two companies were large companies that collapsed and catalyzed the plummeting of the tech sector in 2000, it is quite evident that the breakdown of the financial giants Fannie and Freddie, lehman Brothers and AIG has been the spark that caused the fire that is burning down the financial sector. Nonetheless, one can’t look at the downfall without examining the recovery. Betwen 2001 and 2007, the technology sector was one of the most reliable and was heavily trusted and invested in. By extending the parallel, one realizes that solid and steady financial companies like MS or GS that did not collapse during the banking crash will be excellent buys for the next half decade at least. Another incentive for people to invest in banks is that at the moment, interest rates are literally as low as they can get. With the future holding many interest rate increases, people will again be willing to leave their money in the bank and hold off on spending the last couple of dollars from their paycheck. Lastly, and perhaps most obviously is that the banking collapses mean that the companies that did not collapse will have far less competition and also will receive a majority of the 700 billion dollar baillout much of which has yet to be distributed. Therefore, although it may seem counterintuitive to invest in a sector that has been devastated by the recession, it is in fact a good long term move that will prove prosperous.




Comments
Trackbacks
Leave a Comment