We have been talking about the rebounding price of oil and how it has the potential to become a truly dangerous situation since it would be a significant impediment to recovery.  The ongoing crisis in Iran over the election results and the question of whether they were valid or not has the potential to significantly up the ante and make the oil problem much more potent.  Should the situation in Iran become significantly more tumultuous and should it begin to involve the United States then it would affect oil prices and could pose a parallel situation to that of the 1979 Oil Crisis.
For Instance, if the US chose to intervene on the side of reformist candidate Mir Hossein Mousavi and try to stage an overthrow of an Ahmadinejad dictatorship, then undoubtably oil prices would skyrocket as they traditionally do in tandem with crises in the Middle East.  But more importantly, if such an intervention by the United States government were to fail, or even if the US chose to endorse Mousavi and he did not succeed in reversing the election results, then Ahmadinejad would turn much more hostile toward the United States.  He would likely not engage in talks with the US and would opt to not increase OPEC oil outputs despite the increasing prices.  If such a scenario were to play out then it would be very similar to the 79 Oil Crisis under Carter in that a US backed effort to bring about a pro-West government in oil-rich Iran leads to a more isolationist government that cuts oil exports even more and causes significantly increased prices.
Not only would this ammount to an energy crisis and drastic increases in Oil prices, it would extend the recession.  The United States has not yet found a way to move past its oil dependence, and although we do not import oil directly from Iran, moves by them to cut oil exports would have global repercussions and would cause gas prices in the US to increase as they did in 1973 and 1979.  In 73 and 79, oil crises perpetrated small recessions but it is undoubtable that with the United States currently in the midst of a terrible recession, an oil crisis would play a devastating role in furthering the effect of the recession on middle class families.  Hopefully the situation in Iran will resolve itself but for the time being we must prepare ourselves for significantly higher oil prices and try our best to mitigate their impact on the fautly economy.


Comments

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    How I Make $300 a Day Online // June 17th, 2009 at 5:15 PM

    Hey, nice post, very well written. You should post more about this.

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