Browsing Category: "consumer"

Why Higher Income Taxes are Helpful

Tuesday, December 1st, 2009 | GDP, Recession, consumer, economy, inflation, taxes with No Comments »

As Congress begins to turn towards 2010 and the tax issues that accompany it, I have a short opinion piece on why I believe that the highest earning Americans should face higher taxes:

The economy is still in dire straits and 2010 is around the corner marking time for the debate over income taxes to be rejuvenated.  In the 1940s the highest marginal tax bracket on those making over 5 million dollars (75 million 2009 dollars) was over 90%.  Today, after a wave of fiscal conservatism, the highest bracket applies to those making over 373,000 dollars a year and is at 35%.  .  The question today is what must be done with taxes to reinvigorate spending, lessen the deficit, and increase GDP.  The answer lies in higher taxes for the richest Americans.

The moral arguments dealing with economic inequity are commonplace in today’s world so I’d like to focus on the economic benefits of higher taxes on the rich.

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The Consumer’s Lack of Faith

Friday, November 27th, 2009 | Dow Jones, consumer, economy, investor mentality, jobs, unemployment with No Comments »

The stock market keeps going up.  Its now about to hit 10,500 for the first time since early September 2008.  As we continue the V-shaped recovery, there is one thing thats missing: JOBS.  We’ve discussed how the only reason people still aren’t hiring is because they lack any faith in the future of the economy.  Today, the Gallup tracker of whether the public believes the economy is “getting better” hit a 4 and a half month low, reaching just 31 percent saying its getting better.  At the same time, the Dow Jones hit another 52 week high and just keeps on going with good fundamentals driving it on.  So where’s the disparity? It all started 3 months into the recovery in mid-June when the stock market had flattened for about a month.  (Below is a graph of the increase in the percent of people not saying the economy is poor [green] compared to the increase in the Dow Jones [brown]):

Consumer Confidence in this Recession (2007-2009)

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Is this a Jobless Recovery, and More: 3/09/09-11/09/09

Sunday, November 8th, 2009 | Dow Jones, consumer, house prices, investor mentality, jobs, recovery, unemployment with 1 Comment

We are exactly 8 months in from the Dow bottom that everyone now refers to as the economic nadir of this recession and things are more convoluted than ever before, due to the worsening job situation. Today, we are building on our last look half a year into the recovery in the month of October, to give you a more time-pertinent look at the state of the economy.  The economy has truly reached a critical juncture, where the question is will the indicators flat-line and stop the robust recovery, or will they continue to improve and give us a very strong, quick recovery.  To answer this, the key questions must first be answered, how is the recovery holding up, will it continue, will it be jobless, and will it be widespread.

NOTE: Click on the graph to see a larger picture.

1. How is the recovery holding up? Even though the net change in payrolls continues to improve, and the Dow continues to increase, it is clear that the rate at which both of these indicators are increasing has slowed.  The Dow saw a down month in October, and is only up since 10/09/09 because of the strong week that just passed.  Meanwhile, other indicators are showing substantial weakening in the face of increasing impatience as consumers wait for true recovery.

Dow Jones vs. Payrolls November

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The Recovery Seven Months In: 3/09/09-10/09/09

Sunday, October 11th, 2009 | Dow Jones, consumer, economy, house prices, jobs, recovery, unemployment with No Comments »

We are exactly 7 months in from the Dow Bottom that everyone now refers to as the economic nadir of this recession.  What we hope to make a now monthly feature of this site, now continues, building on our last look half a year into the recovery in the month of September.  The key questions remain, how is the recovery holding up, will it continue, will it be jobless, and will it be widespread.  We traditionally subscribe to the notion of a picture is worth a thousand words so we’ll be answering each of these questions quite simply: with a graph.

NOTE: Click on the graph to see a larger picture.

1. How is the recovery holding up? After the week that just passed it seems as if the recovery just keeps on continuing: While last month it seemed as if the recovery was in fact losing steam, now it seems like we just keep on hitting highs.  With earnings season ahead of us, we’ll be looking to see if this can continue.

Dow Jones vs. Payrolls October

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